AGP Executive Report

Energy Prices & Consumer Pressure: Saudi oil output plunged to its lowest since 1990 as Houthi-linked Red Sea disruptions and the Iran war squeeze exports, pushing Brent above $107 and helping drive U.S. diesel to a record $6 a gallon—fuel shocks that ripple into everyday costs. Syria Fuel Protests: Syria saw its widest fuel-price protests since Assad’s fall after diesel jumped 40% and petrol rose 28%, with protesters blocking highways and demanding ministerial changes. Oil Market Outlook: The IEA cut oil supply and demand forecasts again, warning that Gulf and Red Sea disruptions (including Bab el-Mandeb) are delaying normalization and keeping tanker costs elevated. Travel & Retail Demand: Etihad launched its “Beyond Borders” cabin experience at ATM 2026 and says it’s on track to break even this year despite the Iran war; Emirates also reported strong winter booking momentum. Regional Trade & Consumer Goods: Egypt’s sugar exports hit about $290M in 2025, with Lebanon the biggest buyer, while Türkiye’s exports to nearby markets show Iraq leading among neighbors. Healthcare Market Watch: A new forecast flags reusable underpads as a growing healthcare and sustainability segment, projected to reach $0.92B by 2030.

Energy Shock in the Gulf: Saudi crude output plunged to its lowest since 1990 as Houthi pressure and the Iran war squeeze exports, pushing Brent above $107 and leaving diesel prices at record levels. Pipeline Fallout: Saudi’s east-west pipeline shutdown after drone attacks threatens up to ~4% of global supply and could take weeks to repair, while a key Hormuz shipping meeting was postponed. Consumer Strain in Syria: Fuel price hikes sparked highway blockades and protests across multiple provinces, with experts warning transport costs could jump 20–30%. LNG Cost Spike for Asia: With Strait of Hormuz disruptions cutting contracted LNG, developing Asian buyers are paying far more on spot markets, raising the risk of long-term demand shifts. Retail & Payments in the Region: Shorooq and Emirates Growth Fund backed FMSi to scale fleet management tech across the Gulf, while Qatar Foundation’s BOTaina won five Gold Stevie Awards for AI. Dining Expansion: Malgudi (Eatopia) is pushing global growth, targeting 102+ outlets over five years, including more UAE openings.

Energy Shock at the Pump: Saudi crude output plunged to its lowest since 1990 as Red Sea disruptions and the Iran war squeeze exports, pushing Brent above $107 and lifting U.S. diesel to a record $6 a gallon—fuel costs that ripple into everyday spending. Consumer Relief Measures: Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz announced a Rs100-per-litre petrol subsidy for motorcycles, rickshaws and small cars (up to 800cc), starting in Islamabad then rolling out nationwide to blunt Middle East-driven price spikes. Local Price Pain in Syria: Syria temporarily raised fuel and cooking gas prices after higher global costs and refinery maintenance, triggering protests and transport disruptions. Shipping Risk Escalates: Somali piracy is resurging amid Red Sea security strain, threatening shipping costs and commodity prices. Gold & Jewelry Demand Shift: Record gold prices are reshaping buying habits, with jewellery demand forecast to fall while bars and coins gain. BRICS Diplomacy: BRICS leaders issued a rare joint call for “maximum restraint” in the Middle East, aiming to keep economic cooperation on track despite member divisions. Retail & Competition Watch: In the U.S., grocers and bodega owners sued to block a plan for 30%-cheaper city supermarkets, arguing unfair competition—an echo of how consumer pricing battles are intensifying.

Energy Shock for Households: Saudi Arabia shut its East-West Petroline after drone attacks tied by Riyadh and Baghdad to Iraq-based Iranian-backed militias, raising fears of higher fuel costs as the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remain under pressure. Supply Squeeze: The pipeline had been moving about 4–5 million barrels per day, helping Saudi exports bypass Strait of Hormuz disruptions; now satellite images showed smoke near the line and damage is being assessed. Consumer Impact: With Brent above $107 and U.S. diesel hitting a record $6 a gallon, everyday logistics and grocery budgets face renewed strain. Regional Fallout: Pakistan condemned the attacks as violations of Saudi sovereignty, while reports say Houthi advances in Yemen are intensifying the threat to shipping chokepoints. Policy Response: In Pakistan, the government is considering about Rs2,000 monthly compensation for motorcyclists to offset petrol price pressure from the Middle East war. Diplomacy: BRICS leaders agreed on “maximum restraint” in West Asia, urging protection of civilians and civilian infrastructure amid the escalation.

Energy Shock for Consumers: Saudi Arabia’s crude output fell to its lowest since 1990 as Red Sea disruptions and the Iran war squeeze exports, pushing Brent above $107 and sending U.S. diesel past $6 a gallon—fuel costs that ripple into everyday spending. Shipping & Chokepoints: Iraq said attacks on a Saudi pipeline came from its territory, while Houthis’ push around Bab el-Mandeb adds fresh risk to global tanker routes. BRICS Diplomacy: Xi urged BRICS to back peace in the Middle East and Gulf, while Modi met Iran and others on maritime security and seafarer safety amid Strait of Hormuz disruption. Saudi AI Buildout: Saudi plans 14GW+ of AI computing capacity to accelerate AI growth, linking tech investment to infrastructure demand. Retail & Groceries: Carrefour Kenya reported revenue growth as it expands footprint, while Saraga Grocery in the U.S. plans a new Indianapolis store with a Tous Les Jours café. Business Deals: Perma-Pipe is expanding its Middle East infrastructure and leak-detection push, and Covestro/Fertiglobe/MB Energy signed an ammonia supply-chain MoU tied to a Hamburg terminal. Trade & Events: Syria’s SYRIX Expo 2026 in Jeddah matched Syrian manufacturers with Saudi buyers across food, textiles, chemicals and engineering.

Energy & Consumer Costs: Saudi Arabia’s oil output fell to its lowest since 1990 as Houthi pressure and the Iran war squeeze exports, pushing Brent above $107 and sending U.S. diesel to a record ~$6 a gallon—fueling higher transport costs for everyday goods. Red Sea Shipping Shock: Houthis seized Mocha and the Perim (Mayun) island near Bab el-Mandeb, while Saudi shut a key East-West pipeline after attacks, raising fears of a “double bottleneck” after Hormuz disruptions. IEA Outlook: The IEA warned the 2026 oil supply gap will widen and said Middle East conflict is driving record coal demand as gas prices spike and LNG flows fall. Inflation & Sentiment: U.S. CPI stayed at 3.4% year-on-year but accelerated on the month; core inflation jumped, lifting Fed rate-hike odds to around 90% and worsening consumer sentiment (UM index 47.8). Regional Business Impact: Türkiye protested an anti-dumping soda ash probe, arguing it harms competition and consumer choice; Saudi approved AI-powered dental and eye medical software, signaling faster adoption of digital health tools. Markets: Oil volatility eased slightly on talk of interim Hormuz shipping arrangements, but risks remain high.

Fuel-price shock: U.S. inflation stayed sticky in August as gas prices jumped 3.9% month-on-month, pushing CPI up 0.4% and keeping annual inflation at 3.4%, with diesel now topping $6 a gallon for the first time—an Iran-war-driven cost squeeze that’s feeding into broader household budgets. Shipping & energy routes: Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are rising under U.S. protection (about 11m barrels/day on a weekly average), but markets remain jittery as Houthis tighten control around Yemen’s Red Sea chokepoints, raising the risk of fresh disruptions. Regional policy signals: Egypt rejected EU proposals for refugee camps in southern Mediterranean countries, stressing the burden it already carries while also reiterating support for a two-state approach and settlement import bans. Consumer & retail culture: Abu Dhabi’s Middle East Film & Comic Con returns with major celebrity draws and a big collectibles/cosplay scene, showing how consumer entertainment demand is holding up even as costs rise. Tech for consumers: SEALSQ reported a 131% revenue jump in H1 2026, highlighting continued investment in trusted digital security products that can underpin future consumer services. Market watch: Futures and equities remain sensitive to oil and CPI headlines, with traders focused on whether energy-driven inflation will force tighter rates.

Oil Shock on the Consumer Front: Brent pushed toward $108 and US crude near $104 as Middle East tensions deepened, with investors bracing for higher inflation and rate-hike pressure after the ECB lifted rates again; the surge is already feeding into fuel costs and broader household budgets. Fuel Prices Stay Volatile: In the US, diesel and gasoline remain jumpy week to week, with reports of record-high diesel averages and even “maxed out” pump pricing in California—an echo of how Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions are tightening supply. IMF Watch: The IMF said the world has handled the Middle East energy shock better than feared, but warned oil and gas prices are still elevated and risks remain high for 2026 growth. Saudi–China Trade Momentum: Saudi Tadawul execs say Saudi is benchmarking China’s market-opening moves, citing large inflows via a QFII-style program, as China remains a top trade partner. Retail & Payments in the Region: Elsner Technologies will showcase AI-led e-commerce and digital commerce services at Seamless Digital Commerce Expo Middle East in Dubai, while stc group advances connectivity with satellite plans. Consumer Tech Pricing: A UAE-focused comparison put iPhone 18 Pro pricing at Dh5,099, with the story framing how taxes and VAT make the UAE cheaper than the US, Saudi Arabia, and India. Local Business Deal: Samsung E&A won a $3.5bn Saudi fertilizer plant contract with SABIC Agri-Nutrients, signaling continued investment in industrial inputs that can ripple into food and consumer costs.

Retail Expansion: Primark confirms its first Saudi store will open in Riyadh in March 2027 at The Avenues Mall with Alshaya, after a fast Dubai rollout; Consumer Tech & Payments: Samsung Wallet adds Qatar’s national payment network, widening Middle East mobile payments reach; Brand Experience: ALDO opens a new flagship at Mall of the Emirates in Dubai, debuting a refreshed retail concept focused on footwear, accessories and a more immersive in-store journey; Infrastructure Connectivity: stc group and Astranis will deploy a dedicated Saudi satellite to boost resilient national connectivity; Enterprise Security: F5 unveils AI security capabilities and plans for network expansion in Saudi; Manufacturing & Hygiene: Azerbaijan’s Aliyev opens a paper and hygiene products plant in Baku, including baby diapers, wipes and detergents, targeting regional exports; Supply Chain Security: RFID anti-counterfeiting tags market is projected to hit $10.64B by 2030, reflecting rising demand for product authentication; Audio Gear: Sennheiser starts shipping the Spectera SKM handheld transmitter, completing its Spectera wideband wireless ecosystem; Food & Trade: Iraq’s pork sales case highlights that the law lacks an explicit pork ban, with enforcement hinging on labeling and fraud rules; Energy Prices: Oil stays above $100 as US-Iran shipping attacks and Hormuz disruption stoke inflation fears, with knock-on pressure on fuel and consumer costs.

Shipping & Energy Shock: Iran says it struck ships near the Strait of Hormuz and hit U.S. forces in Jordan after the U.S. said it destroyed five Iranian crude tankers; reports also point to drone damage to tankers near Dubai and in Iraq, while oil markets react to a widening Gulf shipping crisis. Oil Prices at Consumer Risk: Brent pushed above $100 a barrel again, reviving fears of higher transport and manufacturing costs and adding pressure to fuel prices. Fuel Price Pressure: In the U.S., diesel and gasoline prices are climbing alongside the oil surge, with record diesel levels cited and consumers reporting ongoing “pain at the pump.” Policy Response: South Korea’s PM ordered preemptive crude supply steps and monitoring of Hormuz and Red Sea routes, aiming to stabilize consumer prices ahead of Chuseok. Retail & Business Signals: A survey across ASEAN finds firms are hiring more selectively and prioritizing operational efficiency and AI investment, reflecting cautious consumer and business sentiment amid volatility. Middle East Business Moves: Saviynt appointed a Dubai-based VP of Sales for the Middle East and Africa to expand identity security sales as digital transformation accelerates.

Energy Shock: Brent crude broke above $100 a barrel again as US-Iran fighting and attacks on Middle East facilities tightened supply via Hormuz and raised jet-fuel and diesel costs, pushing gasoline higher and stoking inflation fears. Retail & Household Impact: Consumers in Cyprus and beyond are bracing for a second wave of price rises as fuel-linked costs feed into food, transport and services. Saudi Consumer Tech: Lenovo unveiled its first laptop manufactured in Saudi Arabia, signaling deeper local production as the Kingdom expands advanced manufacturing. Logistics & Trade: Saudi Arabia’s South Jeddah Logistics and Industrial Park (SAR5bn) moves forward, while RSGT and CMA CGM signed a ~$434m deal for Jeddah port Terminal 4 to add 2.6m TEUs capacity. AI Infrastructure Push: Magna AI partnered with MBUZZ to accelerate enterprise AI deployment across the Middle East and Africa, and NTT DATA is launching an AI Factory Lab in Riyadh. Diplomacy With Consumer Spillover: Israel ordered the UK to close its East Jerusalem consulate within 30 days after settlement-trade sanctions, adding uncertainty to regional business sentiment. Regional Commerce: Iran-Iraq trade could hit $20bn annually if barriers ease, with Iraq already importing Iranian food and consumer goods. Event Update: Paperworld Middle East was postponed to Sept 28–30, 2027 in Dubai due to industry and logistics constraints.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil surged toward $100 a barrel as Houthis attacked Saudi energy facilities and U.S. strikes hit Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, keeping fuel-price pressure front and center for consumers. Retail Cost Pressure: In the U.S., retailers in Janesville say Iran-war-linked inflation and tariff changes are raising import costs and making it harder for small shops to price goods. Trade Sanctions Ripple: The UK, France and Canada moved to ban products from Israeli settlements, escalating diplomatic tensions that could affect cross-border consumer supply chains. Consumer Finance & Payments: New market research flags fast growth in embedded finance/fintech infrastructure and GxP training services—signals of continued investment in regulated and digital consumer ecosystems across the region. Tourism & Halal Demand: Sri Lanka’s UAE event highlights tourism trade ties, while a halal industry push targets hotel certification to capture Muslim travel spending. Beauty Retail Trends: Market research points to continued expansion in electric makeup brushes as consumers seek faster, premium grooming tools.

UK Settlement Trade Ban: UK Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced an import ban on goods from illegal West Bank settlements, plus sanctions on individuals and firms tied to settlement expansion (construction, financing, real estate, and related services). The rules are set to take effect in 6–9 months, with Israel warning of retaliation and the US ambassador warning of possible consequences for British firms. Energy & Consumer Impact: Oil is hovering near $100 a barrel as Middle East conflict flares, with reports of halted Saudi energy operations after Houthi attacks—pushing diesel and raising pump-price pressure. LPG Supply Shift: India is reportedly turning more to US LPG, with US shipments topping 50% of India’s LPG imports in August as Middle East supply uncertainty grows. Saudi Travel Push: flyadeal will highlight its expanding network and tourism support at WTM Riyadh (Sept 8–10). MENA Retail/Branding: HexClad expands into Italy and adds chef Massimo Bottura to its Global Culinary Council. Business Tech (Gulf): Juspay expands its partnership with Wego to support payments across the Middle East.

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil jumped to six-week highs as US-Iran strikes and threats around the Strait of Hormuz raised fears of supply disruption, with Brent pushing toward the high-$90s and WTI near $93. Fuel Cost Pressure: The same escalation is feeding into record pump prices in the US, with Labor Day averages cited at $4.15 regular and $5.90 diesel, while local US gas-price trackers show wide weekly swings by grade and county. Regional Policy Ripple: Iran’s plan to set a new “restricted/exclusion” maritime zone and warnings to shipping are keeping traders focused on shipping risk and insurance impacts. Consumer Spending Signal: Travel spending rebounded in August after five months of decline, with Barclays reporting higher card spend with travel agents and hotels/accommodation. Health & Consumer Risk: A Lancet study says 2.7 billion people worldwide, including 767 million children, were exposed to second-hand smoke in 2023, linked to about 1.66 million premature deaths. Edtech Investment (Kuwait/GCC): Kuwait-based Dawraty secured a $2m seed from Qatar Development Bank to expand its bilingual, AI-powered healthcare education platform across Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Jordan.

Middle East consumer & retail momentum: Lagardère Travel Retail is pushing deeper into Saudi airport dining, opening Marché and Sawa concepts at Madinah’s Prince Mohammad bin Abdulaziz International Airport, adding more F&B choice for travelers. Energy affordability pressure: India’s LPG refill booking interval is being cut to 25 days for both urban and rural users as supplies improve, while the wider Middle East conflict continues to strain fuel markets. Gulf shipping risk: Iran plans a new restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and maps for a new corridor through Iranian and Omani waters; shipping traffic through Hormuz remains far below normal. Automotive in the region: Lexus launched the all-new ES in the Middle East with hybrid and a first regional BEV ES 500e option, signaling more electrified luxury demand. Luxury travel draw: Nammos Resort AMAALA officially opens in Saudi Arabia, bringing a full resort and beach-club experience to the Red Sea. Tech/consumer finance angle: Tokinvest in Dubai is tokenizing ownership of a 1,971kg silver bar for eligible investors, turning a physical luxury asset into fractional digital exposure.

Middle East Fuel Shock: Iran-US ship attacks in the Gulf of Hormuz are keeping oil and refined product prices elevated, with Reuters noting an extreme shipping-risk picture as tanker traffic through the strait drops to the lowest since May and fuel-oil shortages loom for ships and power plants. Retail Impact: The same disruption is feeding into higher consumer energy costs, with multiple reports tying record diesel and gasoline levels to Middle East tensions and refinery strain. Regional Trade Signals: South Korea’s exports hit $709.4bn by Sept 5, driven by semiconductors, while exports to the Middle East fell 9.8%—a reminder that conflict risk is already showing up in consumer-linked supply chains. Auto Supply for the Gulf: Nexen Tire will supply OE tires for Hyundai’s new Avante, including Middle East-specific fitments aimed at heat and long-distance driving. Egypt Legal Case: An Egyptian TV host, Sarah Khalifa, was sentenced to death in a major synthetic drug trafficking case, underscoring ongoing consumer-safety and enforcement pressure.