AGP Executive Report

Payments Modernisation in Oman: Oman Arab Bank and BPC marked a decade of card and payments upgrades, including Visa tokenization to make digital wallet and online payments more secure and faster to issue/replace. Cold-Chain Retail Supply: Lineage opened a 19,000-sq-m temperature-controlled cold store in Bremerhaven to boost European distribution of seafood and cut waste via dock access and large pallet capacity. Shipping Shock from Hormuz: UNCTAD warned that even after Strait of Hormuz disruption eases, 100+ days of disruption are already feeding through to inflation, food security, industrial output and public finances. Consumer Impact of Fuel Relief: Zambia extended petrol/diesel excise suspension and VAT zero-rating for 90 days to stabilize pump prices amid Middle East-driven oil market pressure. GCC Wealth Growth: BCG said GCC assets under management hit $2.7tn in 2025 (+10%), with GCC retail AuM growing faster (+14%) than institutional (+9%). Turkey Inflation Strains Households: TurkStat put June annual inflation at 32.1%, with housing, education and food costs still driving pressure. E-commerce Fee Hits Greece: A new €3 per-parcel fee cut Chinese low-value shipments to Greece by up to 50% initially, changing how shoppers use Shein/Temu/AliExpress.

Telecom Disruption: Pakistan’s PTA says a fault on the SEA-ME-WE 5 submarine cable has caused intermittent internet slowdowns, with traffic rerouted via alternative links while the SMW-5 consortium and TWA work on repairs. Consumer Prices Watch: Portugal’s basic food basket fell again, now at its lowest since early March, while specific items like tuna and onions rose week-on-week. Plant-Based Food Growth: A report projects the vegan cheese alternatives market will jump from US$2.9bn (2026) to US$6.2bn by 2033 as taste/texture improvements expand retail and foodservice. Food Labeling Rules in Turkey: Chain restaurants in Türkiye must now display calories plus ingredients and allergens (QR/digital/print), with independent venues given later deadlines. Energy & Cost Relief: Oil prices eased toward ~$70 a barrel as US-Iran tensions cooled, helping push UK diesel and petrol lower. B2B Ingredients Deal: Ingredion sold a 51% stake in Pakistan’s Rafhan Maize for about US$165m, keeping a minority stake as it reshapes its portfolio. Travel Experience: SITA data says Middle East airports cut baggage mishandling to 5.3 per 1,000 passengers, helping airlines reduce costly service failures.

Energy & Consumer Impact: Lebanon says Israel’s war damage could top $8B, with consumer prices up ~20% this year and household consumption down 20–25%, as surveys continue across southern towns and Beirut suburbs. Oil Supply & Pricing: Iran’s oil stockpile at sea keeps growing as buyers stay cautious ahead of waiver deadlines, while EPRA in Kenya warns pump prices may lag 30–45 days behind global drops. Food & Logistics: Oman’s Asyad Shipping gets government support to cut fuel/insurance costs for eligible India–Oman food cargoes, and a 225th aid convoy prepares to enter Gaza via Rafah. Retail/Payments: Mashreq and Sukoon embed SME insurance into MashreqBiz, letting businesses buy workmen’s comp and third-party liability digitally. Design & Home Products: Lupax’s rotating pendant lamp wins an A’ Design Bronze, highlighting demand for adaptable home lighting. Market Growth Watch: Single-cell protein is forecast to reach $21.4B by 2033, and smart bathrooms are projected to hit $18.3B by 2033.

Middle East Retail & Telecom: Kuwait’s Zain won a 25-year Syria mobile licence after a $747m bid, with a 20-year term plus a 5-year option; Zain will hold 75% and invest $800m over 10 years, including 5G and AI upgrades, targeting commercial launch in Q1 2027. Food & Imports: Iraq imported $1.541bn of edible fruits, nuts and citrus peel in 2025, up 23.3% year-on-year, led by citrus fruits ($706.8m) and bananas ($275.2m). Business & Consumer Demand: Nigeria’s private sector growth cooled in June as PMI slipped to 53.4 from 54.1, though output and new orders still rose and sales volumes increased. Energy & Household Costs: Fuel levy reshuffle in Pakistan kept petrol and diesel pump prices unchanged from 1 July by doubling the Climate Support Levy while cutting the Petroleum Levy by the same amount. Travel & Lifestyle: Türkiye is pushing luxury honeymoon packages, spotlighting Antalya, Bodrum, Istanbul and Cappadocia with VIP services, private villas and curated experiences. Tech & Consumer Platforms: Global-e completed its acquisition of Passport to expand cross-border e-commerce logistics, adding multi-carrier shipping and last-mile capabilities. Markets & Consumer Mood: Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey said rate cuts are “off the table,” keeping borrowing costs at 3.75% for now.

Middle East Finance & Compliance: Region Trade Bank (RTB) in Iraq named a new international board focused on financial integrity, banking supervision, sanctions policy and payment systems, chaired by former U.S. Treasury/FATF official Marshall S. Billingslea—aimed at strengthening the region’s financial links. Jordan Jobs & Investment Push: The World Bank approved a $700m loan for Jordan’s Growth and Competitiveness DPF-II to unlock private investment, expand access to finance and speed up green and digital transition. UAE Consumer Goods Distribution: Al Khayyat Investments signed an exclusive UAE distribution deal with Aujan Coca-Cola Beverages for Rani, Vimto and Barbican, expanding route-to-market across modern trade, traditional trade, e-commerce and HORECA. Qatar Iran Talks: U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Doha for talks on implementing an Iran war MoU, with mediators handling discussions while Iran’s delegation prepares. Turkey Inflation Snapshot: Istanbul consumer prices rose 1.14% in June; annual inflation slowed to 35.94%, with clothing/footwear down monthly but still up year-on-year. Retail Impact from Iran War: Primark’s like-for-like sales fell 2.2% as the Iran conflict hit sentiment, while Nike’s cautious outlook and weak China demand weighed on shares. Energy Cost Pressure: Ofgem’s 13% price-cap rise takes effect July 1, pushing typical UK household bills up about £221 a year—citing Middle East-driven wholesale gas volatility.

Telecom & Digital Growth: Zain Group won a 25-year mobile network license in Syria (75% Zain, 25% state), with a Q1 2027 launch planned after a 6-month transition for 6.3m customers. Space & Connectivity: Türkiye’s Turksat and Qatar’s Es’hailSat signed a strategic partnership for the Es’hail-3/Turksat-Biruni Ka-band satellite, targeting capacity sharing and long-term commercial growth. Auto Manufacturing Watch: Stellantis is reviewing its proposed South Africa plant and expects a decision in coming months as cheaper Chinese imports reshape pickup demand and pricing. Consumer Impact via Energy: UNCTAD warns that even after Strait of Hormuz reopening, higher oil, fertilizer and transport costs will keep squeezing households and vulnerable economies. Payments & Fintech: DailyPay appointed Inbal Shani to its board, while Sygnum Europe expanded EU access via a CASP authorization to scale its digital-asset banking footprint. Retail & Food Safety: Iraq’s INSS says it seized and destroyed 352 tons of expired/banned food and shut 80 commercial sites in June.

UAE-Ukraine CEPA: The UAE-Ukraine trade deal (CEPA) takes effect, cutting customs duties on 99% of Ukrainian imports of UAE goods and 97% of UAE-bound exports, aiming to revive non-oil trade and boost both economies through 2031. UAE Retail Payments: American Express expands in the UAE via Network International, adding acceptance across 85,000+ new locations for SME merchants. Qatar–Türkiye Space Push: Es’hailSat signs with Türksat and Thales Alenia Space for Es’hail-3/Türksat-Biruni, targeting high-speed Ka-band connectivity across MENA and beyond. Energy Cost Pressure: Nigeria signals further petrol price relief if crude stays softer, while regulators warn against profiteering despite easing Iran tensions. Food Retail Watch (UK): Sainsbury’s says grocery inflation pressure is easing but uncertainty from the Middle East conflict remains; it holds guidance as shoppers trade down. Consumer Impact (Abuja LPG): Cooking gas prices in Abuja fall to roughly N1,498–N1,650 per kg as supply improves. Labor Cost Debate (Philippines): NCR workers question a staggered minimum wage hike, arguing it won’t keep up with higher essentials costs tied to the Middle East oil shock. Aviation Demand Shift: Asia-Pacific passenger growth stays positive, but airlines cut Middle East routes and capacity amid conflict and higher jet fuel costs. Luxury Real Estate (RAK): Luxe Developers awards a AED150m fit-out contract for Oceano on Al Marjan Island, adding retail and ultra-luxury residences.

Middle East Energy & Consumer Impact: Markets are watching a fragile US-Iran ceasefire as talks in Doha are announced but disputed by Tehran, keeping oil and fuel prices volatile and pressuring household budgets across the region; shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is still uneven, while energy efficiency is being pushed as a policy shield against price swings. Fuel Price Governance: Regulators and governments are warning against fuel price exploitation as crude falls, with FCCPC-style scrutiny in Nigeria and calls for pump relief where possible. Retail & Cost of Living: Greece is extending price stability for about 2,000 essential goods for July-August after margin caps expire, while consumer surveys highlight grocery costs as the biggest pain point. Saudi Consumer & Media: MBC Group and Cenomi Centers are launching a live media experience at Westfield Riyadh, blending studios with retail and entertainment. Hospitality Expansion: Minor Hotels signs NH Riyadh Prime Square for a 2030 opening, adding another GCC lifestyle destination. Tech for Consumers: Crusoe plans $10bn data center investment in Israel, signaling continued digital infrastructure demand.

Middle East Consumer Policy & Trade: A trilateral Israel–Lebanon–US framework took effect June 29, starting a phased IDF pullback from southern Lebanon and setting “pilot areas” for Lebanese army control as Hezbollah supporters protested in Beirut. Travel & Customs: Saudi Arabia cut the traveller declaration threshold for cash and gold to SAR 40,000, with ZATCA requiring disclosure on arrival and departure for covered valuables. Consumer Finance: UK mortgage approvals fell to a two-and-a-half-year low in May (56,205), as higher borrowing costs tied to the Iran war hit homebuyer demand. Retail & Pricing Pressure: FCCPC flagged Nigeria’s concern that consumers haven’t seen meaningful pump-price relief despite crude sliding, warning against exploitative practices. UAE Consumer Services: Expo City Dubai partnered with Emirates NBD to offer tailored mortgage and home financing for buyers across its residential portfolio. Digital Consumer Growth: 51Talk launched a structured online English program for ages 3–7 across Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar and Kuwait. Local Markets: Gold prices dipped in Baghdad and Erbil, with 21-carat imported gold down to 894,000 Iraqi dinars per mithqal in Baghdad.

Fuel Price Relief Watch: Nigeria’s FCCPC says petrol cuts are “token” despite crude falling after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, warning marketers of consumer exploitation and possible sanctions. Energy-Trade Signals: Pakistan is weighing cheaper Iranian oil and gas imports after easing US restrictions, with officials citing potential savings and refinery challenges. Retail & Consumer Growth: Egypt’s cosmetics and personal care market topped $900m in 2025, with demand rising on social media and younger consumers; L’Oréal is expanding local manufacturing. Shopping Destinations: Saudi Arabia’s Cenomi Centers awarded a SAR1.3bn contract for a premium Al Khobar retail and boulevard project, aiming to boost lifestyle retail experiences. Auto After-Sales Push: JMC’s Bahrain distributor hosted a HQ delegation to upgrade sales, after-sales, and spare parts readiness. Health & Food Safety Risk: A study warns bovine tuberculosis may be spreading across MENA via cattle and raw milk, with patchy testing masking the true scale. Tech Consumer Electronics: HONOR opened pre-orders for the HONOR Magic V6 foldable in Saudi Arabia, leaning on AI features and durability claims.

Saudi Real Estate & Hospitality: Jabal Omar Development plans to sell 400 hotel residential units this year and reshuffle the final phase after Saudi eases foreign ownership rules in designated Makkah zones, aiming to widen the investor pool and cut debt. Lebanon Heritage Damage: Reuters reports Israeli strikes have damaged or destroyed heritage sites across southern Lebanon, with Culture Minister Ghassan Salame saying authorities can’t fully assess damage due to an occupation zone. Consumer Trade Boost: China grants Egypt tariff-free access for African nations, with Egypt’s fresh orange shipments among early beneficiaries—good news for exporters despite a big Egypt-China trade deficit. Pakistan-Iran Fuel Talks: Pakistan’s petroleum minister says the country is exploring cheaper oil and gas imports from Iran after sanctions relief, while also stressing benefits to consumers as global prices fall. GCC Finance & Customer Funds: UAE Central Bank expands rules for dormant accounts and unclaimed funds across banks, finance firms, exchange houses and insurers, requiring contact attempts before transferring balances to the central bank. Saudi Retail Tech Deals: BenQ launches Amazon Prime Day deals in Saudi Arabia, targeting creators and gamers with Mac-compatible monitors and 4K projection options. Healthcare Compliance: Saudi Arabia suspends a practitioner’s licence over social-media promotion of exosome injections that allegedly conflicts with approved guidance. Energy Security & Shipping Risk: Iran mandates designated routes for foreign vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, raising oil supply and insurance concerns as shipping adapts.

Iran Inflation Surge: Iran’s year-on-year inflation jumped to 88.6% in Khordad (May 22–June 21), with the CPI up 5.9% month-on-month, adding fresh pressure on household budgets. Currency Watch: Iran’s rial slid again after a brief post–US-deal rebound, with the dollar trading around 1.68m rials on the open market. Saudi Customs Crackdown: Saudi ZATCA reported 1,162 contraband seizures in a week, including 68 drug types and thousands of tobacco products, plus cash and weapons cases. Iraq Fuel Shortage Claims: Iraqi fuel station investors allege “daily theft” in deliveries, saying they receive fewer liters than ordered and get fined for shortages they blame on supply shortfalls. Egypt Consumer Goods Industry: Egypt’s military production ministry met SC Johnson to expand industrial cooperation and local manufacturing of household cleaning products. Luxury Tech Retail: GoldPrivé opened pre-orders for luxury gold iPhone 18 Pro Max editions and launched a Dubai showroom for bespoke devices. Grocery Retail Ops: Dubai-based YRC released a grocery layout planning framework arguing poor shelf/category logic can quietly cut sales and margin. Iraq Fuel Pricing (Broader): Pakistan kept petrol/diesel prices unchanged despite crude falling near pre-war levels, reigniting debate on whether consumers are getting the benefit.

Strait of Hormuz & Consumer Impact: Shipping and oil-market jitters are back in focus after a reported drone attack on a cargo vessel and subsequent US strikes on Iranian sites, with BIMCO urging clearer US-Iran terms for safe passage as evacuations were paused and transits remain uneven. Energy Bills & Inflation Pressure: Even as oil eases, households still feel the lag—US consumer sentiment improved in June mainly as gas prices moderated, while other regions are bracing for higher power costs tied to Middle East disruptions. Iran Sanctions Relief Dispute: Iran’s central bank rejects US claims of shortages, saying $3.7bn was allocated for essential imports, while banking outages and cyber disruptions continue to disrupt everyday payments. Regional Retail Payments: Network International launched “Slice” in the UAE, letting eligible credit cardholders convert purchases into instant interest-free installments at the point of sale. Egypt Consumer & Auto: SOUEAST debuted two plug-in hybrid SUVs in Egypt (S06 DM, S08 DM), signaling more hybrid options for local buyers. Luxury & Jewelry: UAE lab-grown diamond retailers are expanding vintage-style old-cut collections as Gulf demand grows for heritage-inspired bridal and gifting. Tech & Services: InstaeVisa expanded global visa assistance as travel and overseas education demand rises. Market Outlook: Goldman Sachs lifted India’s 2026 growth forecast to 6.8% after the US-Iran peace deal, citing lower oil prices and steadier supply chains.

US-Iran trade & consumer ripple: The U.S. goods trade deficit hit a 14-month high in May as firms front-loaded imports tied to Middle East shipping and oil/fertilizer costs, even as a preliminary peace deal eased Strait of Hormuz pressure; economists warn the wider gap could weigh on growth, while consumer sentiment in the U.S. rebounded in June as gasoline prices fell, though budgets still feel squeezed. Middle East shipping stabilizes: After the ceasefire, eight South Korean-operated vessels cleared Hormuz safely, cutting the number of remaining ships in the region to just five—good news for supply chains and fuel flows. Fuel & packaging pressure: Oil slipped below $70 as traders leaned on tanker movement, but downstream costs remain sensitive; meanwhile, a packaging-sector report says the war dented paper packaging demand and pushed plastic packaging prices up 30–50%, narrowing the cost gap. Food-trade politics: Trump floated using unfrozen Iranian assets to buy U.S. wheat/soy/corn, but Iran disputes details—an uncertainty that could affect global ag demand. Turkey exports & consumer economy: Erdogan highlighted Türkiye’s tech and defense export surge, while the country’s deposit return system aims to cut waste and boost the economy. Beauty & retail: Dubai will host Notes Dubai (Jan 2027), betting on the region’s growing perfume influence; and Emirates NBD launched a UAE Visa card art experience. World Cup consumer buzz: Toronto hosts Senegal vs Iraq, with fans packing the city—another reminder of how big events drive local spending and logistics.

US-Iran Farm Deal & Consumer Impact: Trump told Congress he’s pushing to expand US agricultural exports to Iran and asked for new aid for producers, while analysts keep tallying the war’s household cost (about $1,000 per typical US family so far) as energy and food prices ripple through daily spending. Oil & Fuel Prices: Global crude slid more than 2% as supply outlooks outweighed fresh Strait of Hormuz worries; the easing helped markets, but fuel-price pressure still shows up in places like Cyprus, where petroleum sales fell 5.1% in May even as excise cuts tried to shield motorists. Middle East Shipping Friction: Iran’s new Strait of Hormuz radio coordination rule (Channel 16) adds operational risk and could raise insurance and transit costs for energy-dependent importers. India Macro Boost From Lower Oil: Goldman Sachs lifted India’s 2026 growth forecast to 6.8% after the US-Iran peace deal, citing cheaper crude and reduced supply disruptions. Retail in Türkiye: Mother’s Day and Eid al-Adha lifted May retail momentum, with strong gains in clothing/footwear, dining, and health & cosmetics—though retailers still face rent pressure. Travel Tech for Consumers: A South Africa-focused report argues eSIM travel plans are beating traditional roaming on price and predictability, with Yesim positioned as a benchmark for overseas connectivity.

AI & Telecom: Orange Group appointed Usman Javaid as chief AI officer, aiming to generate €600m+ in AI-driven value by 2028 and embedding AI across networks, customer relations and operations. Food & Retail Drinks: Starbucks (Alshaya) in Kuwait launched a limited-time protein push, adding 15g protein via Protein Cold Foam plus three spring protein variants (Americano, Matcha Latte, Latte). Banking & Wealth: HSBC opened its first Qatar wealth centre inside the new Msheireb Downtown Doha HQ, targeting Premier and high-net-worth clients with private advisory, bespoke solutions and seminars. Digital Services in Saudi: Meta’s regional director says messaging apps are becoming Saudi Arabia’s “service gateway,” with BCG reporting 84% of institutions plan messaging tech investment over five years. Energy & Consumer Impact: Rooftop solar demand is surging in the Philippines and Thailand as fuel and power costs rise, but installers report supply bottlenecks and quality concerns. Trade & Markets: Strait of Hormuz tensions remain a consumer-cost wildcard as shipping incidents and Iran-US asset disputes continue, while U.S. inflation data shows prices rising 4.1% in May—fueling pressure on household budgets. World Cup as Commerce: Türkiye vs USA coverage and betting promos are driving consumer attention across the region ahead of the Group D finale.