AGP Executive Report

Diesel Shock Hits Households and Supply Chains: Record UK diesel prices at £2 a litre (RAC) are feeding into higher transport costs and warning of food-bill pressure, as the Middle East conflict keeps fuel markets tight. EU Emergency Fuel Debate: EU governments discussed releasing diesel reserves after US pressure, with proposals to release tens of millions of barrels of diesel alongside IEA crude—aimed at cooling prices amid fears of a US diesel export ban. Oil Market Volatility: Brent hovered around $102 as traders weighed US-Iran tensions against signs of recovering Middle East supply, keeping consumers and retailers on edge. Gulf Tourism Jitters: A flydubai cockpit incident threatens visitor confidence just as the region tries to rebound from earlier US-Iran disruptions, with airlines and hotels offering deals to lure arrivals back. Connectivity Deal With Middle East Reach: Inseego completed its Nokia FWA acquisition, expanding wireless broadband coverage across Europe and the Middle East. Retail Payments Friction in Turkmenistan: A long-running shortage of small tenge coins is forcing cash workarounds in everyday shopping and transport. Cyber Risk for Consumer Tech: Rapid7 reported new Linux malware campaigns targeting Asian mail-security appliances, underscoring rising security pressure across the region’s digital services.

Targeted Energy Aid: Pakistan’s IMF-backed plan would replace untargeted electricity tariff subsidies for poor households with direct cash transfers via BISP, with modalities to be finalised next week. Inflation Watch: South Korea’s consumer prices rose 2.9% in September, easing back toward the 2% range as farm prices fell, but petroleum costs stayed elevated (diesel +20%, gasoline +11.8%). Fuel Supply Shock: China suspended October fuel product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, tightening already war-affected markets and adding to price risk. Middle East Energy Pressure: Oil prices edged up as US troop and carrier deployments to the region and US-Iran tensions kept uncertainty high, even as Hormuz crude flows reportedly neared pre-war levels. Consumer Impact Angle: Europe faces pressure to release diesel reserves to lower prices, with the US warning of possible diesel export curbs. Local Retail/Brands: UAE gold buyers are shifting toward “wearable bullion” 24-karat jewellery as prices soften. Food & Retail Markets: A new forecast projects the global bakery products market could top $322.3B by 2030, driven by convenience and packaged-food demand.

US Sanctions & Supply Chains: The US Treasury sanctioned 10 people and entities, including Pakistan’s Wasim Pasha Tajammal and his firms, alleging they helped Iran’s MODAFL procure weapons components. Gulf Retail & Trade: COEX brought 50 Korean consumer-goods companies to Dubai for a GCC export push, with one-on-one matchmaking for UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar buyers. Aviation Security & Consumer Impact: Reports say Israel’s Shin Bet flagged security concerns about UAE airport flights months before a flydubai hijacking attempt; flights were reportedly suspended amid the dispute. Energy Prices & Consumer Pressure: Oil jumped above $100 as US-Iran talks stalled and fuel markets tightened; diesel and gasoline costs remain a major household squeeze, with governments weighing relief measures. Manufacturing Pulse (Pakistan): HBL’s PMI eased to 50.9 in September as new orders weakened, though exports supported growth. Digital Commerce & Payments: Leverate launched ASK, a native AI assistant that answers traders using their own account data and can guide in-platform actions. Luxury Resale: Beezie’s first luxury drop with The Luxury Closet sold out 500 authenticated items in 42 minutes, signaling strong demand for gamified resale. Middle East Connectivity: NaiTel and MEDUSA signed an agreement to strengthen Jordan–Europe/North Africa connectivity via Aqaba Digital Hub. Local Entrepreneurship: A Bethlehem women-focused online marketplace was launched to help promote women-made products and reach new markets.

Retail Beauty Expansion: Sephora is partnering with Marks & Spencer to launch “Sephora at M&S” in select stores and online from spring 2027, with plans to roll out the shop-in-shop concept to 100 M&S locations across the region. Automotive Brand Launch: FREELANDER, co-developed by JLR and Chery, held its global brand launch in Abu Dhabi, unveiling the left-hand drive FREELANDER 8 for government and industry partners. Travel & Consumer Spending: Accor Plus is expanding its paid loyalty subscription model into the Middle East after a UAE pilot, aiming to drive repeat stays and dining spend. Cruise Demand Shift: Norwegian Cruise Line is pushing deeper into the Middle East via fleet and destination upgrades, while Royal Caribbean is urging earlier bookings as GCC travelers typically book closer to departure. Aviation Security Shock: Passengers on a flydubai Dubai–Tel Aviv flight were safely landed in Saudi Arabia after a co-pilot allegedly stabbed the pilot and attempted to seize control; Israel says it is tightening checks on pilots. Energy Prices Watch: Global crude held above $90 as Middle East supply recovery competes with US-Iran diplomatic deadlock, with Hormuz transit rebounding but uncertainty remaining.

Fuel Pricing & Consumer Impact: Malaysia’s MOF cut retail prices for Oct 1–7: RON97 and unsubsidised RON95 down 5 sen/litre, while unsubsidised diesel drops 15 sen/litre, citing moderating crude prices and improved regional refined supply—though volatility remains tied to US-Iran tensions. Energy Costs in Europe: EU officials say Brussels paid €100bn+ extra for imported oil and gas this year as a pure price premium, pushing a faster pivot to domestic electricity generation and grid upgrades to reduce exposure to Middle East-linked market swings. AI for Energy Retail: ADNOC-backed AIQ signed a deal to enter India’s oil and gas sector, aiming to deploy AI across refineries, gas stations and digital stores. Digital Identity in MENA: Jumio launched selfie-based reusable identity (Selfie.DONE) across Europe, the Middle East and Africa to let previously verified users re-authenticate without repeated document scans. Retail & Payments: Egypt’s MoneyHash partnered with Geidea to widen payment access across MENA, while Qatar-Saudi trade talks highlighted consumer protection and easier cross-border procedures. Food & Supply: Egypt’s wheat output is forecast to hit a record 10m tonnes in 2026-27, with imports expected to fall to 12m tonnes as harvest area and yields rise. Security Tech: Türkiye’s Karmod showcased mobile armored cabins and ballistic door/window systems at Teknofest.

Retail & Consumer Wellness: Innocan Pharma’s consumer wellness unit B.I. Sky Global will represent VALITIC™ at Shoptalk Fall 2026 in Nashville, pitching its skincare brand to major retailers and consumer-tech players. Energy Prices & Consumer Impact: Oil prices swung with US-Iran sanctions talk and Strait of Hormuz risk—Brent pushed back above $103 after Trump denied easing sanctions, while traders also watched potential US diesel export moves that could affect fuel costs. Regional Trade & Consumer Protection: Qatar and Saudi Arabia reviewed ways to deepen bilateral trade and industrial cooperation, including import/export facilitation, private-sector growth, SMEs, and consumer protection; trade hit about $1.98bn in 2025 (+36%) and rose ~18% in Q1 2026. Sanctions & Market Access: Japan removed 16 Syrian organisations from its sanctions list, including entities tied to defense, interior and parts of Syria’s oil sector, signaling easing barriers for some trade and services. Remittances & Spending vs Investment: Jordanian economists urged redirecting rising expatriate remittances (up 14.1% to $2.966bn in the first seven months) toward investment projects and partnerships rather than mostly consumer spending.

Energy & Shipping: Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are back up to about 65–70% of pre-war levels, with weekly crude averages around 11.2 million barrels/day as a “shuttle fleet” and Saudi exports help offset earlier disruptions. Consumer Cost Pressure: Iran war-linked energy volatility is still feeding into household bills and retail prices, with Spain moving to cap gas price hikes at 15% and extend fuel discounts to cushion consumers. Retail & Beauty: M&S is partnering with Sephora for shop-in-shop beauty counters in up to 100 UK stores from spring 2027, plus online availability via M&S.com. Local Market Moves (Bahrain): Almoayyed Contracting Group and Daikin opened a Daikin Experience Center in Bahrain to boost access to HVAC solutions and after-sales support. Tech Training (Egypt): Oppo Egypt, ITIDA and Nile University completed a third phase of its tech talent programme focused on customer service and after-sales operations. Crypto/Consumer Finance Angle: Pepeto’s presale reportedly topped $11.122m, while XRP price chatter continues to draw retail attention.

Wealth & Family Office Tech: At Hubbis Middle East Private Capital Forum 2026 in Dubai, panels focused on how Gulf wealth managers should turn easier access to products, data and AI into real portfolio value—stressing portfolio architecture, risk accountabilities, and adviser responsibility even as AI speeds research. Institutionalising Next-Gen Capital: A separate panel said Gulf family offices only become “institutions” when founder-led decisions are translated into durable mandates, governance and cross-border legal setups. Fraud & Consumer Protection: Arkansas AG Tim Griffin kicked off a Fraud and Consumer Protection Summit with 800+ registrants, highlighting scams, price gouging, crypto fraud, robocalls and AI deepfakes. US-Iran Consumer Cost Shock: US markets slid as US-Iran tensions resurfaced; Trump denied offering Iran sanctions relief, while the wider conflict continues to lift fuel costs and squeeze household budgets. US Fuel Prices (consumer impact): GasBuddy reported week-ending Sept. 19 lowest prices in multiple US counties, with regular gas lows around $3.76–$4.09 and diesel lows near $5.59–$5.89, reflecting ongoing Middle East-driven oil volatility. US-China Trade: Reuters said the US and China will pursue tariff cuts on $60bn of goods, including items spanning cosmetics and household appliances, as part of a broader trade truce.

Energy Supply & Prices: Saudi Arabia resumed oil exports via the East-West pipeline after repairs from earlier drone strikes, restoring an alternative route that had been relied on during the Iran war and potentially easing pressure on some European crude term deliveries. E-commerce Growth: Dubai South’s EZDubai Logistics Hub, with Euromonitor, says the UAE e-commerce market hit Dh42.2bn in 2025 (up from Dh17.6bn in 2020) and could reach Dh67.2bn by 2030, with penetration rising toward 20%+ of retail sales. Consumer Impact of the Iran War: A new analysis says half of sub-Saharan Africa depends more on diesel generators than grid power, leaving households and businesses exposed to imported fuel price swings. Retail & Fashion: Shein reported a sharp Europe sales drop in Q2 after price hikes and reduced advertising ahead of EU low-value parcel fees. Healthcare Products: Leica Biosystems completed its acquisition of StatLab Medical Products to expand pre-analytical consumables for precision cancer diagnostics. Funding & Beauty: Dubai-founded Amaani raised $5m to expand its AÏZA skincare/haircare line across Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Middle East Energy & Consumer Impact: Oil rebounded after Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping regional supply risk elevated; analysts flagged record US diesel prices as a pressure point that could worsen inflation and revive debate over diesel export curbs. Retail/Transport Cost Squeeze: With diesel and fuel costs rising, trucking and consumers face tighter budgets, while political debate in the US links gas prices to the Iran conflict and tariff/energy policy choices. Aviation Maintenance Capacity: Sanad says demand for engine maintenance is outpacing repair capacity, investing over Dh800m in UAE aerospace infrastructure and targeting 275–300 engine shop visits annually before a new GTF facility starts in 2028. Saudi Lifestyle & Consumption: A look at Riyadh’s late-night café culture shows how public social spaces are reshaping Saudi identity and consumer habits. Market Watch (Non-Middle East, but fuel-linked): US gas-price trackers repeatedly cite Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption as drivers behind volatile gasoline and diesel costs.

Retail & consumer tech: XtremeDiscount expanded its Xtreme HD IPTV platform with new TiviMate/Smarters apps, a Sports Hub, VPN integration, and remote setup/troubleshooting tools, plus a free 36-hour trial—aimed at making subscriptions easier to install and support. Energy & consumer costs: GasBuddy price reports for the week ending Sept. 19 show patchy but still elevated fuel costs across the US, with the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions cited as key drivers behind volatile gasoline and diesel pricing. EU consumer rules: The Netherlands began enforcing a crackdown on imports of goods from Israeli settlements, with strict checks at Schiphol and penalties for origin-label circumvention. Middle East security spillover: UK police arrested five men near a US-used air base (RAF Fairford) on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act, as tensions tied to the Iran conflict remain high. Oilfield services: SLB won four multi-year integrated well construction contracts from Aramco covering 450+ wells over three years, boosting Saudi upstream execution capacity.

Packaging & Sustainability: ALPLAinject will unveil in Dubai an all-polypropylene, metal-free mono-material foam dispenser pump designed for recyclability and retail shelf efficiency, targeting personal care and pharma brands. Energy Costs & Household Impact: With Middle East conflict keeping global fuel tight, households face higher energy bills and consumers are urged to submit meter readings before price-cap changes; separately, diesel price pressure is being felt across transport-dependent economies. Regional Fuel Supply Moves: Iraq has begun importing gasoline via Syria’s Baniyas port and Al-Waleed border, with thousands of tanker loads planned to ease shortages. Trade & Investment: Egypt says it attracted $15.5bn FDI in 2025 and is pushing reforms to move from strategy to implementation; Qatar Charity launched a $1m vocational project in Syria for 500+ people. Consumer Health & Chemicals: A study flags 920 breast-cancer-relevant chemicals found across everyday products and environments, raising fresh scrutiny on consumer goods. Geopolitics & Shipping: Saudi Arabia says Hormuz must reopen without charges or restrictions, while US-Iran shuttle talks raised hopes but did not shift positions.

Craft & Exports: Malaysia’s MICF 2026 aims for RM20m in international craft sales, with the bulk of RM240.3m craft revenue so far coming from the domestic market—showing big upside for overseas buyers. Beverages Expansion: Saudi brand Kinza says it’s not trying to outmuscle giants, but to match shifting consumer expectations as it pushes exports to 70+ countries and seeks Southeast Asia partners. Food Trade: 36 Jordanian food firms will join Saudi Food Expo and Saudi Industrial Expo in Jeddah, pitching sweets, dairy, grains, soft drinks and packaging to a 100,000-product, 25,000-professional crowd. Tech Investments: Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon tells Asharq Al-Awsat that Saudi Arabia is becoming a regional AI and data-center hub, with projects “just the beginning.” Industry Calendar: ISM Middle East 2026 in Dubai (3–5 Nov) is building momentum despite regional geopolitical strain, with confectionery and snacking a key draw. Energy Costs (Consumer Impact): Fuel prices in the US remain volatile, with GasBuddy reporting localized lows for regular, premium, E15 and diesel—while broader Middle East tensions continue to feed global oil and shipping pressure.

Yemen Mobilization: Yemen’s Saudi-backed president Rashid Al-Alimi called for general mobilization and offered amnesty to Houthi fighters who defect, as the Red Sea front tightens. Energy Security: A drone attack damaged Saudi Aramco’s East-West pipeline pumping stations, raising fears that oil exports are getting harder and costlier as Hormuz remains a chokepoint. SME Tech & Payments: Mastercard’s Dreamonomics report says EEMEA SMEs are prioritizing growth and cybersecurity, leaning into AI and adopting emerging payment methods like crypto and stablecoins. UN Security Council: The UNSC condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, warning of impacts on civilian and energy infrastructure and stressing navigation rights. Scam Watch: Kaspersky flagged fake iPhone 18 deal sites targeting users in multiple languages, pushing Bitcoin payments and harvesting personal data. Egypt Industry: Egypt unveiled its first domestically made industrial robot, aiming for higher local component content and boosting manufacturing capacity. Fuel Prices Pressure: Petrol and diesel price moves in Egypt reflect ongoing Middle East-linked energy volatility, while diesel costs continue to squeeze households and businesses. Food Innovation: Turkish researchers tested a Mediterranean herb extract in beef patties, finding improved cooking yield.

Food Fraud Crackdown: Israel Police seized about 76,800 eggs in a truck at the border into Jerusalem, alleging forged stamps claiming Israeli origin; the eggs were destroyed before reaching stores. Gaza Aid Logistics: Israel pledged to allow EU-funded aid worth €43m into Gaza for essential services, including water pumps, marking the first such early-recovery entry in a year. Energy Pressure on Consumers: European governments are rolling out subsidies, taxes and policy pauses to blunt record fuel costs tied to the Iran war and Middle East disruptions; OECD says seven of the top 10 active responders are in the EU, as households feel the squeeze at the pump. Fuel Price Volatility (US): GasBuddy data shows sharp local swings in US fuel prices for the week ending Sept. 19, with regular gas lows like $3.59/gal in Randolph County and diesel lows like $5.48/gal in Flagler County. Diplomacy for Shipping Lanes: Zelenskyy said Egypt, India and Türkiye proposed ways to lift the Black Sea blockade via a reciprocal ceasefire to keep agricultural goods moving. Market Mood: Wall Street looked set to open higher as AI optimism offset worries about high oil prices and rising Treasury yields, with investors watching prospects for a Middle East de-escalation.

GCC Security & UN Diplomacy: Kuwait’s Crown Prince’s representative told the UNGA that Iran’s missile and drone attacks since last February violate international law, repeatedly targeting civilian infrastructure including Kuwait International Airport, power and water stations, and oil facilities. Retail Payments Innovation (UAE): Seamless Middle East 2026 heard that AI-enabled wearable payments—like bracelets, necklaces and rings—could reach UAE shoppers by end-2026 or early 2027, moving beyond phones and cards. Customer Engagement Tech (LATAM): CleverTap appointed Lohran Queiroz as VP for Latin America to expand regional growth and adoption of its AI-powered customer engagement platform. Energy Prices & Consumer Impact: A competition watchdog said retail petrol prices are “reasonably reflecting” changes in import costs during the Middle East conflict, after global wholesale swings pushed pump prices higher. Geopolitics & Markets: European shares slipped as oil rose on faltering hopes for US-Iran progress, keeping bond yields near multi-year highs. Iraq-Iran Security Roadmap: US-backed efforts to bring Iran-backed armed factions under Iraqi state control are straining Baghdad’s roadmap, with disagreements over pace and scope.