AGP Executive Report

Middle East Energy Shock: Trump says no Iran talks are planned and posts a map claiming the Strait of Hormuz as “new US territory,” even as reports point to “positive” US-Iran discussions—keeping pressure on regional fuel flows and consumer costs. Trade & Consumer Goods Finance: The EBRD approved a $75m trade finance facility for Iraq’s Al Mansour Bank to expand guarantees and cash advances for cross-border imports/exports, including agriculture, construction, manufacturing and consumer goods—aimed at boosting access for MSMEs. Retail Demand Under Strain: Homewares and furniture retailer Temple & Webster flagged a 62% profit drop and sharp sales decline over seven weeks as the housing downturn and Middle East conflict weigh on spending. Fuel Price Volatility (US, linked to Middle East risk): GasBuddy reports show localized US price lows for E85, diesel and midgrade gasoline in multiple counties during the week ending Aug. 8, with coverage repeatedly tying volatility to Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Market Sentiment: Sri Lanka’s ASPI slipped 0.64% as investors cited rising global oil prices tied to Middle East escalation.

Fuel & inflation pressure: UK watchdog CMA issued hundreds of warning letters to petrol retailers for not quickly passing lower wholesale diesel costs to drivers, keeping margins high despite only small pump drops. Oil market shock: Oil prices climbed for a third straight day as US-Iran ceasefire hopes faded and new Strait of Hormuz attacks were reported, pushing Brent above $91 and lifting downstream diesel margins to record levels. Gulf financial rift: Reuters reports Saudi Arabia tightened extra anti-illicit-money oversight on transfers to the UAE, delaying or returning some cross-border payments and adding friction between the two Gulf economies. Consumer health & hygiene: Turkey’s health minister claimed Turkey ranks near the top globally for smoking, citing domestic cigarette sales and OECD comparisons as new anti-smoking measures loom. Middle East retail/tech: Apple sent its biggest wave of spyware alerts yet, reaching users across 110 countries, including military personnel, raising new privacy and device-security concerns. Business growth in the region: Himalaya Wellness said its Dubai Science Park R&D centre is driving targeted double-digit personal-care growth across the UAE and wider GCC. Payments expansion: Sunrate officially launched in Pakistan to support digital exporters with cross-border payments and FX.

Middle East Remittances Watch: Prolonged conflict in the Middle East is squeezing migrant budgets. In the Philippines, cash remittances from overseas Filipinos grew only 1.7% year-on-year to $3.04B in June, the slowest growth since Feb 2022, as higher living costs and deployment uncertainty weigh on what workers can send home. Energy Costs & Consumer Impact: Shell Pilipinas reported a P2.7B first-semester loss, blaming weaker fuel demand and oil-price volatility tied to the Middle East war, with margin pressure and inventory holding losses. Retail & Market Mood: U.S. stocks slipped as oil jumped on renewed U.S.-Iran escalation worries, pushing Treasury yields higher and adding inflation pressure—an environment that typically hits consumer spending and shopping plans. Local Consumer Safety (Turkey): A Turkish doner kebab restaurant owner in Hatay saved a choking customer using the Heimlich manoeuvre, highlighting everyday customer-service risks and quick-response skills in food outlets. Business & Skills in the Gulf: UAE hiring trends point to tougher competition for entry roles, with AI fluency and practical, job-ready skills moving higher on employers’ lists.

Fuel & Inflation Shock: Canada’s inflation hit 3% in July as gasoline jumped 25.7% year-on-year, blamed on renewed Middle East tensions, Strait of Hormuz disruption and Red Sea shipping partial closures—keeping core inflation near 2% and raising pressure on household budgets. Crypto & Consumer Data Risk: Israel’s crypto broker Bits of Gold disclosed a breach affecting about 200,000 customers, with names, IDs, contact details and bank info exposed (no funds or private keys reported). Port & Trade Resilience: DP World said revenue rose 13.1% to $12.7bn in H1 2026, with Jebel Ali fully operational but regional conflict reducing vessel traffic; it’s pushing new Fujairah terminals and $3bn capex for 2026. Retail Demand Pressure: U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 51 in August (University of Michigan), with high fuel prices tied to the Iran war pushing shoppers to cut back on convenience-store impulse buys. Food & Protein Innovation: Pluri’s Ever After Foods acquired Belgium’s Fishway to expand cultivated-protein platform capabilities, adding aquatic cell lines and ACF media know-how. Gold Watch: Gold returned to around $4,400/oz as September rate-hike expectations cooled, lifting Egypt’s 21K prices to about EGP 6,250/g.

Energy & Trade Infrastructure: Lebanon is holding talks with Iraq in Beirut to revive the historic Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, positioning Lebanon as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products as Baghdad seeks alternatives to Strait of Hormuz routes. Tourism & Consumer Impact: Cambodia’s Angkor tourism is taking a hit as higher travel costs and fraud concerns deter visitors, with Middle East disruption blamed for reduced flight availability and weaker arrivals. Retail & Consumer Finance (UAE): A Dubai clinic says breast augmentation demand is rising, but stresses that “implant choice” is only part of outcomes—patient anatomy and surgical planning are key. Markets & Cost Pressures: Gold steadied near US$4,400 as traders weigh softer US data against energy volatility tied to US-Iran tensions, while Japan’s slower-than-expected growth points to Middle East-linked supply and raw-material headwinds. Food & Farming Costs: AUSVEG reports Middle East conflict has sharply lifted vegetable growers’ diesel, freight and fertiliser costs, with limited pass-through to checkout prices. Compliance & Finance: Nigeria’s SEC tightens rules, directing capital market operators to cut ties with institutions linked to North Korea and reject transactions involving Iranian financial institutions. AI & Defense Procurement: A Pentagon-related Anthropic purge order was later reversed, highlighting fast-moving AI policy chaos inside national security.

Strait of Hormuz fallout: An OilPrice.com report says Iran is moving toward “de facto control” of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, pushing the US and Gulf states to plan alternative export routes, including a proposed $5bn refinery/export hub outside Hormuz and an overland pipeline via Saudi Arabia and Israel to Mediterranean ports. Energy corridor revival: Lebanon and Iraq are discussing restarting the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline as Lebanon prepares to act as a storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products, with upgrades at borders, roads and safety standards. Fuel price pressure: South Africa is warning of steep September fuel hikes, with diesel under-recovery pressures pointing to wholesale increases and pump prices potentially rising sharply amid Middle East route instability. Retail and consumer squeeze: Filipino shoppers are cutting back and diversifying as war-linked fuel and commodity costs bite, with a Worldpanel survey showing worsening household outlook since the Middle East crisis began. Aviation hit: IATA estimates Middle East airlines’ profits could swing from a $7.2bn gain in 2025 to a $4.3bn loss in 2026 as Iran-war disruption keeps capacity constrained. LPG access rules: India’s LPG e-KYC deadline is Aug. 16; missing it may block domestic-rate cylinder access until verification is completed. Tobacco crackdown: Kuwait has introduced tighter rules on tobacco and nicotine products, including bans on unregistered and child-targeted items and restrictions covering e-cigarettes and heated tobacco. Egypt-Libya trade push: Egypt’s Federation of Egyptian Industries and Libya’s chambers signed a protocol for an annual Egyptian-Libyan industrial integration exhibition in Benghazi, targeting April 2027. Israel consumer economy bounce: Israel’s Q2 GDP grew 15.4% after a contraction tied to the Iran war, with private consumption and exports rebounding.

Maritime Security & Energy Routes: Saudi Arabia formally launched a multinational Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping coalition as Houthi attacks and Strait of Hormuz disruption keep trade routes under pressure, pushing buyers to look for alternatives. Consumer Impact via Prices: Iran’s war-linked strain is feeding into higher costs and weaker demand, with US retail sales down 0.6% in July and consumer sentiment falling as inflation expectations rise. Digital Finance for Retailers: Israel’s Bank Leumi partnered with Galaxy Digital to launch crypto trading for retail customers in early 2027, after earlier regulator delays. Smartphone Affordability: Middle East smartphone shipments reportedly fell 19% in Q2 as vendors prioritize profitability amid component and memory cost pressures, squeezing budget models. Back-to-School Health: Bahrain doctors advised parents to keep school bags light and properly fitted, noting wheeled bags can help on flatter routes but aren’t ideal everywhere. Tourism Partnerships: WTTC welcomed Egypt’s Tourism Authority as a destination partner to boost sustainable tourism growth and global promotion. Local Retail Shift (Nigeria): Nigeria consumers are increasingly choosing neighborhood stores over big retailers for daily essentials, benefiting hyper-local formats.

Strait of Hormuz & Consumer Costs: Iran’s moves and US pressure keep choking Hormuz shipping, pushing energy prices higher and feeding inflation worries across the region and beyond. Retail & Everyday Spending: US consumer sentiment slid to 51 in August as retail sales weakened, a sign shoppers are tightening belts—exactly the kind of demand pressure Middle East retailers watch closely. Food Safety & Quick Commerce: India’s Maharashtra food regulator suspended warehouse permits for Eternal, Swiggy and Zepto after hygiene findings, raising the bar for fast grocery delivery operations. Coffee Supply Chain Tech: Indonesia’s FNB Tech is unifying the coffee value chain with four digital brands focused on traceable sourcing—good news for roasters and café owners hunting reliable supply. Gold & Jewelry Market Pulse: Gold rose about 0.86% weekly on softer US data, with Middle East-linked oil volatility still keeping precious metals supported. Insurance Apps: UAE insurer Sukoon launched a revamped mySukoon mobile app for faster claims and policy management, pushing more services into customers’ pockets. Agriculture Inputs Deal: Advanta Seeds (UPL) is set to acquire Egypt’s Misr Hytech Seed for ~$110m, aiming to strengthen corn seed supply across MENA.

Hormuz Pressure on Consumer Costs: US says it can keep an indefinite naval blockade on Iran as attacks near the Strait of Hormuz slow shipping; Trump also floated declaring Hormuz “US territory,” keeping oil and energy-price risk front and center for households and retailers. Tariff Relief for Personal Care: Kimberly-Clark secured a $45M refund tied to invalidated US tariffs, using it to offset higher oil-linked input costs and keep pricing roughly neutral. Crypto Goes Mainstream in Israel: Bank Leumi partnered with Galaxy to launch regulated crypto trading (BTC/ETH/SOL) in 2027, signaling more consumer-facing digital-asset access through banking apps. Retail Demand Softens in the US: US retail sales fell 0.6% in July and Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 51.0, adding to slowdown worries that can ripple into import demand and regional consumer spending. Regional Fuel Politics: Pakistan petroleum dealers postponed a planned strike after margins were increased, aiming to stabilize pump pricing and supply expectations. Trade Route Diversification: Lebanon and Iraq discussed reviving the Kirkuk-Tripoli pipeline to build an alternative export corridor away from Hormuz chokepoints. K-beauty Expansion: Able C&C opened a UK unit to scale Missha distribution across Europe, betting on Britain as a bridgehead for online and store growth.

Hormuz Pressure on Consumer Costs: The US says its top Iran-war priority is now lowering gasoline prices for Americans, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions keep fuel costs elevated and Tehran’s leverage grows. Retail & FMCG Demand Softening: Worldpanel by Numerator reports FMCG spending growth in the Philippines is stuck at just 1–2% as Middle East-driven essentials inflation pushes shoppers to cut back. Saudi Discount Push: Saudi Arabia’s “2026 Sales” campaign is live with over a million discounted items, running Aug 1–Oct 30 under ministry discount-license rules. Online Grocery Boom: Mordor Intelligence forecasts online grocery to hit $1.74T by 2031, with same-day delivery and micro-fulfillment centers reshaping shopping. Food Safety Recall: Whole Foods and other retailers recalled multiple salsas, guacamole and dips tied to a multistate Salmonella outbreak linked to jalapeños. Energy Infrastructure Workarounds: Lebanon and Iraq are discussing restoring the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline to create a Mediterranean re-export route for Iraqi crude and refined products. Defense for Consumer Tech Supply Chains: Northrop Grumman unveiled a drone-swarm defense gun system aimed at protecting critical infrastructure tied to the AI economy.

Energy Routes & Consumer Impact: Lebanon and Iraq are reviving the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline talks in Beirut, aiming to turn Lebanon into an initial storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products—an effort meant to cut reliance on Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing Middle East disruption. Regional Trade & Retail: Saudi Arabia’s producer prices rose 8.5% year-on-year in June, led by higher manufacturing costs (including refined petroleum and chemicals), while consumer inflation was reported at 1.8%—a mix that can feed into downstream pricing. Tech & Payments for Shoppers: Airwallex and Air Corporate launched a one-application setup for Hong Kong company registration plus a live multi-currency account, targeting faster “day-one” business payments that can support cross-border retail and e-commerce. Tourism Demand Signals: Chinese outbound travel forecasts for 2026 were trimmed as consumers get more selective, with Middle East conflict cited as a factor—watch for knock-on effects on regional hospitality and shopping. Market Mood: Turkey’s central bank lifted its end-2026 inflation forecast to 28%, adding uncertainty for pricing and consumer budgets.

Payments & Retail Flexibility in Jordan: valu Jordan teamed up with Hypermax (Majid Al Futtaim) to let shoppers use valu’s BNPL at Hypermax branches and online, aiming to make everyday purchases more affordable. Egypt Fintech Deal: eFinance agreed to buy Tamweely for about $99.8m, boosting its push into non-banking financial services like consumer finance and insurance. GCC Payments Expansion: Qatar-backed Rasmal Ventures joined Yuno’s $45m Series B to scale global payments tech, including Saudi and GCC integrations and a BNPL partnership with Tabby. Middle East Energy Diversification: Lebanon and Iraq discussed reviving the Kirkuk–Tripoli pipeline to create a Mediterranean export route and reduce reliance on Hormuz amid regional disruption. Consumer Impact via Inflation Signals: US wholesale inflation cooled in July, a sign price pressure may ease, though energy shocks remain a risk for household costs. Car Sales Hit by Conflict: Jaguar Land Rover reported weaker sales and profits tied to Middle East disruption plus a supplier fire and model wind-downs. Turkey Inflation Outlook: Türkiye’s central bank lifted its end-2026 inflation forecast to 28% citing geopolitical risks. Regional Defense Cooperation: Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan outlined institutional mechanisms, joint exercises and deeper defense-industry cooperation under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.

Hormuz Diversion Plan: Iran is said to be tightening “de facto control” over the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, pushing Washington and Gulf states to back alternative oil routes, including a proposed $5bn refinery/export hub outside Hormuz and an overland pipeline via Saudi Arabia and Israel to Mediterranean ports. Lebanon-Iraq Energy Corridor: Lebanese officials met Iraqi counterparts in Beirut to revive the Kirkuk-Tripoli pipeline as Lebanon readies to act as an initial storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products, with upgrades planned for borders, roads, and storage safety. Fuel Prices Link to Middle East Risk: In the US, gas prices are still reacting to Middle East-linked oil and shipping disruptions, with multiple GasBuddy reports showing localized lows for E15/E85, midgrade, and diesel during the week ending Aug. 1. Food Safety Recall: Whole Foods recalled jalapeño-containing products tied to a Salmonella outbreak, with items sold across multiple US states and specific best-by dates. Youth Jobs Pressure: South Korea’s finance minister cited the prolonged Middle East war and heat/drought impacts as factors weighing on youth employment, prompting new job-creation measures.

Middle East Energy Logistics: Lebanon and Iraq are meeting in Beirut to revive the historic Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, with Lebanon preparing to act as an initial storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products, including border upgrades and tanker-ready safety standards. Oil Market Pressure: The IEA warns global oil stockpiles are rapidly depleting and has cut its 2026 supply outlook as renewed Iran-war escalation tightens markets and keeps Strait of Hormuz reopening uncertain. US Inflation Watch (Impacting Region): US CPI cooled to a 3.4% annual pace in July, with core at 2.5%, easing rate-hike pressure and influencing energy and consumer-cost expectations tied to Middle East disruption. Consumer Finance & Payments: MasterCard is pushing deeper retail and fintech partnerships across the Middle East and Africa, while Rasmal Ventures backs Yuno’s $45m Series B to expand payment rails across GCC markets. Retail & Food Supply Controls: Kuwait’s customs seized trucks trying to smuggle subsidized ration food supplies out of the country, highlighting tighter enforcement around consumer staples. Travel Hit by Conflict: Tui reports weaker demand and higher fuel costs tied to Middle East tensions and the Iran war, reshaping holiday booking patterns.

Energy Supply & Prices: Lebanon is moving to revive the Kirkuk–Tripoli oil pipeline, aiming to turn the country into an initial storage and re-export hub for Iraqi crude and refined products, with upgrades to borders, roads for tanker traffic, and storage safety standards—part of Baghdad’s push to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East Shipping Shock: Markets are still jittery as US-Iran peace hopes fade; Strait of Hormuz traffic has been reported at just six vessels, keeping oil near/above $90 and raising consumer-cost worries. Consumer Impact Signals: In the US, fuel prices remain volatile in the wake of Middle East disruptions, with GasBuddy reporting localized diesel and E15 price lows in multiple counties during the week ending Aug. 1. Business & Travel: IHG’s Middle East exposure is being pressured by the Iran war, even as World Cup demand helps cushion hotel demand. Tech for Efficiency: Enterprise AI is shifting toward cheaper inference, with Core42 arguing that workload-aware routing—not just bigger models—will matter most as GenAI scales.

Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Strait traffic thinned to just seven commodity vessels as US-Iran deal hopes faded, keeping oil prices near $90 and adding pressure to consumer fuel costs. LPG Shortages & Queues: LPG imports may be up, but Nepal’s cooking gas remains hard to find as supply-chain bottlenecks (cylinders, storage, distribution and transport) trigger long queues. Iran Gas Output Hit: Iran reportedly lost about 95 million cubic metres of gas production from war-related infrastructure damage, with repairs aimed to restore capacity by end-September. Freight Costs Rise: Maersk lifted its Emergency Contingency Surcharge by $500 on select Middle East-Africa routes, including higher reefer surcharges. Energy Policy Moves: Bangladesh’s energy minister said an investment-friendly approach is being adopted to strengthen LNG and gas resilience for industry. Consumer Tech & Retail Signals: Singapore upgraded its 2026 growth forecast on AI demand, while Israel’s high-tech labor market shows a software-vs-hardware split as AI reshapes hiring. Gold Watch: Gold hit a two-month high in India as Middle East-driven energy inflation worries boosted safe-haven buying.