El Nino Offers Early Warning of Extreme Amazon Heat
The study, published in the journal Earth’s Future, investigated how major forms of natural climate variability affect extreme temperature and rainfall patterns across the Amazon Basin.
Researchers found that periods of unusually high temperatures in the Amazon were more likely to follow warmer-than-normal conditions linked to El Nino in the tropical Pacific, along with elevated temperatures in parts of the tropical Atlantic.
The strongest long-range indication was identified for the March-May period, when extreme heat across the Amazon was associated with ocean conditions recorded as much as seven months earlier.
“It is quite surprising that heat extremes are linked to conditions in the Pacific and tropical Atlantic Oceans observed up to seven months in advance,” said UNSW Associate Professor Andrea Taschetto, a co-author of the study.
The researchers examined monthly climate records spanning 1950 to 2023 across six regions of the Amazon. They also applied machine learning techniques to study compound events involving both unusually hot and dry conditions.
Such combined heat and dryness can raise wildfire risks, harm ecosystems and create threats to human health, food supplies and water availability.
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